Hello, I am Mike. I am a game designer. I am a member of #Gamers4harris, a group of over a thousand game and puzzle creators who endorse Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. I have also contributed crosswords to Harris's Puzzlers, a free political puzzle set for creative talents. If you play games and puzzles, you would want to know that almost every American who makes them supports the Democratic ticket.
But who does a game designer think? What we know is how strategies work and how people make choices, and... you get ideas. We are reasonably skilled at predicting outcomes. We know a set of tools for game theory, behavior, and anticipating results. In 2016, I predicted that Clinton (a person with a 99% chance of winning) would lose the election 11 days after Comey's letter came out. In 2020, I predicted Biden's exact total of electoral votes. In 2022, I was off by the number of House seats the Democrats could win. I get some right. Others go wrong. Mostly, I swing from seeing what happened in the past to what will happen in the future.
As ballots are cast, the present and future of the buoyant nation merge into the now. What is happening now is happening now. So, based on what I know, I will give ten predictions. I base them all on one game theory meta concept: the best interest of the people.
It is common to ask, “Why do people always act against their best interests?” It is a foolish question. People vote based on what they perceive at the time. It does not matter if they are wrong about it in the long run. Just because they think they value something does not mean they do. What matters is whether their actions will pay off for them.
Voting blocks are not monoliths. But they are “monolithic.” You can know things based on past behavior. You can read the ground. Importantly, they can do the same. Groups tend to move into a lock state due to social outcomes because they do not do so. Sometimes you want them! Often you do not.
If everyone in America votes based on what I think, my read on what will happen on election day is as follows. I can look back at the end of this week and see how I did. It could be a train wreck. Or I could hit the exact number of votes like I did last time. You never know. Let’s find out together. I think that thought...
1. White people will be disappointed. Perhaps more than ever. Again.
I will use “disappointed” to mean “sacrificing democracy and the rights of others.” Why would they do such a crazy thing? From a certain perspective, only one group benefits when the rights of marginalized groups are trampled. If you are white, you might think it is wrong to benefit or celebrate when others lose. There will be many white people celebrating it.
Of course, Harris has many white friends. Some will not vote. Some who voted for Trump will be peeled off because they want their daughters to have a brighter future or at least will say that to their daughters. Some establishment Republicans who cannot disguise Trump will write in Dick Cheney. That could raise Harris's white male support by 40%. That’s a lot. But it still poses problems at all levels.
There is a significant difference between voters with college degrees and those without. If you believe the polls, Harris is losing white men with college degrees by wide margins. This could be the difference between winning and losing. White supremacy is a hell of a drug.
The gender gap in this election will raise white men at least 20 points on the wrong side of history (i.e., 60-40 Trump). It could be more. The fact that whites are super road means it is not surprising that there are many whites. Perhaps except for one...
2. White women will vote more for “women” than “white” this time.
We can be confident that Harris will gather over 80% of Black women and over 60% of Latina women. But what about white women? What are their interests?
Many things. For example, grocery prices and crime. (Both are a little lower than Fox News.) Almost everything. But you don’t need me to tell you that the first presidential election will be a referendum on women’s rights. So we need to know if white women are more inclined to vote “women” than “white.”
There are many anti-abortion white women. But at least two-thirds of women do not think men should tell women what to do with their bodies. In every state where abortion is on the ballot, most people in red states led that referendum to victory. Older women who saw friends and family die while Trump mismanaged COVID have memories of life before Roe. Women with college degrees are Harris's largest block and probably will be the largest block. So far, women will significantly outvote men at the polls. They are not going back.
Iowa is a state that has stripped women of their right to choose even after the courts confirmed it. This weekend, Ann Selzer's gold standard Iowa poll shows Harris winning by 3. That is a state Biden lost by 18. Even if Selzer is slightly off, Harris could pull off a stunning victory here. I did not have that on my bingo card.
Where are reproductive rights on the ballot? Arizona. Colorado. Florida. Maryland. Missouri. Montana. Nebraska. Nevada. New York. South Dakota. The Democrats are clearly winning three of those. We are definitely losing three.
Four of Arizona, Florida, Nebraska, and Nevada are in play. Women have a chance to win Harris in these states. If they vote with interest, white women will go 52-48 for Harris nationwide. What makes me think...
3. Tim Walz will win the electoral vote.
Pennsylvania is really important! Everyone says Josh Shapiro would have closed Pennsylvania. Why choose someone else?
There were many reasons not to choose PA Shapiro. I will not call them out. Rather Tim Walz, why he was the best choice among governors, mysteriously disappearing when he wears a tie,
Tim Walz is the famous governor of Minnesota. That gets you Minnesota. Not surprising. But he is also a native of Nebraska. He knows what the Pirogi of Nebraska is. Nebraska is a state where electors vote in three blocks (2, 2, and 1). He got one electoral vote from his hometown of Omaha. That’s 9 votes.
If Selzer's poll is right, that could be the reason Harris wins in Iowa, the state between Nebraska and Minnesota. There are more than just abortion to consider there. Beans are a huge crop in that region of the country. Trump's tariff wars devastated the bean economy. Walz addressed that issue. If he is doing a lot of service for the Democrats in Iowa, why not trust Iowa? What about other electoral votes? Don’t they have farmers in Nebraska who hate tariffs?
With the abortion amendment and tariffs, Walz could flip this state to Harris by 3 or 5 in one electoral vote. Is it possible? I don’t know. I would investigate the possibility that the red part of Nebraska is not completely red. You never know who might surprise you. About that...
4. The Latino vote is not a monolith.
Several swing states are heavily populated by Latinos and other immigrant populations. That matters.
Let’s talk about Florida. The Cubans in Miami, the hometown of Ronald W. Reagan Avenue are Republicans who can find the world’s best milkshake. It is hard to imagine what that change is. But they are not the only Floridians with heritage south of our border.
Another large Latino group in Florida? Puerto Ricans. There are a million of them. According to the poll from the Madison Square Garden Rally, Harris is preferred 85% to 8% (not a typo). Also, there are 500,000 Haitians in the Fort Lauderdale area, who are not Latino. They did not take well to Trump and Vance’s “they are eating the dog” comments. Is a million votes enough to tip Florida? We will see.
The Hispanic population in Arizona and Nevada is mostly of Mexican descent. This is a group with several generations in those states. Most were born here. Many of them no longer relate to Mexico. This suggests that they might think about acting like white voters in their interests. Still...
Trump has suggested that he is chasing away legal immigrants. That’s moms and grandmas. I am not sure Trump has what it takes here. After MSG, I think many Latinos are interested in not accommodating white nationalists. I think the Latinos in Arizona and Nevada might tilt slightly to remain around 52-48. This leads me to a theory.
5. Texas is in play.
How much would you party if Ted Cruz lost to Colin Allred tomorrow? The biggest party you’ve thrown? The biggest person you’ve thrown? It could happen.
How angry Latinos are is a huge factor in Texas voting. But don’t bet on just them. Texas could lose us 500,000 or win us 50,000. Who knows? What I know is that the Harris campaign thinks it is working. Jasmine Crockett is sure. The Democratic rally with Beyoncé got the biggest numbers in this campaign.
Overall, what are the interests in Texas for this election? Immigration matters a lot here. Those paying attention know that the Republicans have muddled Biden's administration's border policies and those not paying attention do not. I cannot tell how many Texans are in which group. My guess is that more people blame him than recognize him here. But I don’t know. If you told me “blexas” happened, especially if Iowa polls are right, I would not be shocked.
Even if we do not win the electoral vote in Texas (if there is one for a long time), the implications of Allred's race and home are huge. If election betting is legal in America, I might be able to bet on a huge Democratic victory against Texas. (In fact, I know. The betting markets are foolish. Don’t do it.)
When immigration is an issue, it hinders progress on immigration for border states. It is a contentious issue, but nothing more than this...
6. Gaza is important in the blue wall. It may not be in obvious ways.
PollerCoaster has shown a few things quite consistently. Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and a bit more ahead in Michigan.
Harris has run a surprisingly consistent campaign. In messaging, she has been confused about the economy, reproductive rights, housing, inflation, and Donald Trump's unfitness. She has had some difficulty with immigration, but the message that the Republicans are ignoring it is clear.
There is only one issue that she has almost failed to satisfy anyone on. That is the Gaza invasion of Israel. She supports ending the war and bringing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians but does not say that Palestinians are being unjustly bombed by Israel. Perhaps it is because she believes they are not. Perhaps she thinks she cannot step sideways from the sitting president. Perhaps she is tired of shouting in every speech.
In any case, there are many people angry at her for this. Some, like me, support the sale of doomsday weapons to Israel but are unwilling to do so with one significant inconsistency over 80 years of civil rights progress. Including members of the 200,000-strong Arab community in Michigan, some will make other calls. It is a tragically charged decision that can go either way. It is about whether to punish Harris at potential cost.
I hope Harris's morally shaky position will not backfire. Because Trump is very deteriorating on this issue. He wants his creaky Netanyahu to “end the occupation. He wants to “expel pro-Palestinian protesters from America. His son-in-law Jared Kushner sees Gaza as a “waterfront property” opportunity. Trump’s rise will kill more Palestinians and Lebanese than Harris. So I return to the question. What is in the interest of Arab Americans? It is impossible to know how people will react in the face of overwhelming personal tragedy. I do not predict other than to say that Arab Americans will vote in their interests just like us. How they define those interests will be closely monitored.
But here is something I feel I know better. Harris believes her position will stop the Jewish exodus to the Republican Party. It is a huge block that resides in more than a third of Pennsylvania. Jewish voting has been one of the most reliable factors in Democratic politics, generally over 70%. Jews are divided on this issue. Many are anti-war, but some Jewish voters believe the administration has been too hard on Israel and too soft on Palestinian protesters. Some will leave. Most will stay. Jewish voters should be strong for Harris.
I think Harris will take the blue wall across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. It could be very close. We could still lose all of this, but I am betting on it...
7. Young people are ready for it.
Taylor Swift has one of the first or second most devoted fan bases in America for Trump. Swift's endorsement of Harris changed the electoral map. Charli XCX, LeBron James, Ariana Grande, AOC, David Hogg, most of Hollywood. Almost everyone young has voted for Kamala.
But that does not matter. What matters is that generational change is the most important issue as generations rise. What are young people's interests? To make sure the rest of us do not screw everything up.
The environment is on the ballot. Gun control is on the ballot. Reproductive freedom is on the ballot. Voting rights are on the ballot. These are important issues for Generation Z. They just need to be led to vote. That’s where we have the edge.
Harris and Walz are meeting young people in Tiktok, Twitch game streams, soccer games, concerts, and on the streets. The vibrancy of this campaign is noticeable. Trump is rambling for hours at a time, squeezing in anywhere. Vance is just standing there. Harris and Walz are walking around. They mean it in a way that young people want to mean something.
Many young people will sit this out as they always do. Some will wander to a third party for the first time. But the majority will vote for their future. Kamala wins this group by 35 points. Turnout matters. I believe America’s youth will make us proud. And proud...
8. African Americans will save America again.
Donald Trump wants to say he will win a lot of Black voters. He will not. He will break apart.
The Nazi-style Madison Square Garden rally ended Trump’s ridiculous vision as president of all Americans. That disgusting cartoon Tony Hinchcliffe, who called Puerto Rico a “floating garbage island”? He also made watermelon jokes. This stuff does not go unnoticed.
If there is a group that Harris best serves as president, it is African Americans. They do not benefit from the takeover of the White House by white supremacists, especially helped and regressed by racist South African billionaires. (In fact, two racist South African billionaires.)
Think especially about African American parents with African American women and daughters. Think about what it is like when the president looks like you. This is overly simplistic. But representation matters. Choosing between a white supremacist and an avatar of hope makes it an easy choice for African American voters. At least 80% say Harris.
North Carolina and Georgia are going blue. These two states have 6 million African Americans. North Carolinians have Mark Robinson as a black gubernatorial candidate, who likes to call himself a “black Nazi.” According to polls, he is losing double digits to Josh Stein. Is there a big difference between Robinson and Trump? Who knows? I am betting on North Carolina. Especially since some fools rode the hurricane state and got stuck all over FEMA. North Carolina is going blue.
And Georgia? Would you be surprised if metro Atlanta pulls it off again? Is Trump on trial in Judge McBurney's courtroom? I would not be surprised. I like these two states. The fact is...
9. I like them all. Harris wins in a landslide.
This is my map. I am calling Harris 397, Trump 141.
Am I sure? Hell no, I am not sure. Not at all. I am a game designer, not a psychic. This prediction could be incredibly embarrassing in a very short time. We could very well lose all the swing states, even if we no longer do. Polling errors could invade again toward Trump, and Maga could rule the roost. Game theory or not, predicting elections is a matter of opinion.
I am pulling this map out because I want it to be true. I am planning. I want to believe that white supremacy, lies, and the Taliban are not the most powerful political forces in America. I think raising money (counting billions), that enthusiasm matters (for Democrats +10), that ground game matters (we have one, we do not), and felony convictions matter (he has 34, we have 34. do not). Otherwise, nihilism is the only thing that matters. I want to imagine that most of us will not vote for nihilism. Game theory cannot help me. Hope can.
But here is the problem. Hope does not come without information. Do you know how you get anxious? Your brain might tell you things are okay, but your heart is telling you not to trust that feeling? How about fearing what she thinks on social media? Well, the other side does not think that way. They are loud, brazen, and very confident. But it is a throwing race. Without an obvious outcome, game theory says these projection strengths are dealing with weaknesses. The side that fears defeat will be much harder than the side that thinks it has this in the bag. We have put in all the effort. That’s the information. That’s what you can use. Don’t let game theory persuade you. Just do it. All gas, no brakes.
That’s what game theory tells me. So to bring it home, this is my ultimate and most sacred prediction.
10. There will still be dogs after the election.
Despite our tendency to ignore ourselves during election season, dogs still love us. That never changes, no matter who wins on Tuesday.
Democratic candidates love dogs. The head of the Republican ticket hates them. His running mate is incredibly awkward around his dog. And they lied about the dog eating. That is not right.
Vote for the two who clearly love dogs. Vote Harris/Walz 2024.
This is the 75th piece in a series about politics and game theory. Trump , Russian collusion , white supremacy , abortion , guns , nuclear war , debt , Colin Kaepernick , sexual harassment , Mueller investigation , taxes , Trump's first year , Clinton Foundation , immigration , parades , Democrats , hope have been addressed. , family separation , trade wars , midterms , Times Op-Ed , Justice Kavanaugh , Speaker Pelosi , Lame Ducks , GOP legacy , stock market , democracy field , shutdowns , third parties , Virginia scandal , party impeachment , Trump mafia , college admissions , William Barr , Brexit , Iran , Mueller Report , Joe Biden , Oregon standoff , environment , Jeffrey Epstein , Trump's Lies , Pelosi's strategy , impeachment inquiry , political outsiders , Rudy Giuliani , Berlin Wall , protest art , Boris Johnson , religion , engagement , Bernie Sanders , Progressive Unity , Democratic candidates , pandemic , unemployment , riots , Klan , allies , GOP 2020 strategy , Biden's strategy , wildfire crisis , Civil War , Kamala Harris , Trump's COVID diagnosis , Biden's incidents , Native Americans , Native Americans, Capitol insurrection , Blizzard , electoral delegates , Israel-Hamas war , Democratic 2024 strategy , Washington state politics and Biden's Gaza gaffe. Many of these appear in my book Game Theory in a Time of Chaos. Now our store.
