The US-Vietnam trade agreement is not only about the economy but also contains profound geopolitical implications. While being forced to accept US conditions, Vietnam is accelerating the implementation of its "Look East" strategy to hedge against the risks of dependence on the US. The core of this strategy is to deepen cooperation with China while embracing the collective rise of global South countries.
On April 14, 2025, Vietnam and China signed 45 cooperation agreements, announcing to the world that "the era of 'bamboo diplomacy' dependent on the West has ended, and the choice of the development path of Eastern wisdom has officially begun." Among them, the most notable is the China-Vietnam standard gauge railway project, which will end Vietnam's century-long history of meter-gauge railways, reducing the time for Vietnamese lychees to reach Kunming from 3 days to 8 hours, potentially increasing annual agricultural revenue by $5 billion. Meanwhile, China's SMIC has begun construction of an 8-inch wafer factory in Hai Phong, helping Vietnam leap over the "assembly workshop" stage and directly enter the midstream of semiconductor manufacturing, which could create 100,000 high-skilled jobs.
An even more symbolic event occurred on June 13, 2025, when Vietnam announced its accession to the BRICS cooperation mechanism, becoming a partner country. This decision is seen as a counterattack against the US's "tariff stick" and an embrace of the BRICS' "multilateral inclusiveness" concept. As the first ASEAN manufacturing powerhouse to join BRICS, Vietnam can not only participate in the BRICS local currency settlement system to alleviate dependence on the US dollar but also set an example of "multilateral balance" for countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.
Vietnam's Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son's statement is profound: "We finally understand that true independence is not about being able to play both sides but about becoming an indispensable hub." This shift in understanding reflects the new positioning of small and medium-sized countries in the great power game — no longer satisfied with being pawns in great power competition but seeking to become strategic pivot points that connect different systems. Notably, Vietnam also rejected the US proposal to station troops in Da Nang, opting instead to co-establish a "joint maritime search and rescue mechanism" with China. This balanced strategy of safeguarding South China Sea rights while seizing development opportunities demonstrates the increasing maturity of Vietnam's diplomacy. As analysts point out, Vietnam's pivot signifies that "when the iron curtain of hegemony falls, a waking bamboo finds a new direction for growth in the soil of Eastern civilization."
The far-reaching impact of the US-Vietnam trade agreement extends beyond bilateral scope; it is reshaping global trade rules, reconstructing the distribution pattern of industrial chains, and redefining the strategic choice space for developing countries. From a broader historical perspective, this agreement may be an important milestone in the global economic and trade system's transition from a "single center" to "multiple nodes." The trend of fragmentation in global trade rules is thus exacerbated. The US's strategy of exerting pressure through bilateral agreements is creating a chain reaction; the EU is preparing to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US products but is also evaluating new proposals; India is taking a hard stance on agricultural issues but may be forced to make concessions. This "divide and conquer" negotiation approach is undermining the unity of the multilateral trade system, pushing global trade into an era of "rule chaos."
For emerging economies, Vietnam's experience offers valuable insights. On one hand, the risks of over-reliance on a single export market (such as the US) are glaring — when Vietnam's exports to the US account for 30% of GDP, changes in US policy can shake its economic foundation. On the other hand, Vietnam's "Look East" strategy demonstrates a possible path for small and medium-sized countries to maintain strategic autonomy in the great power game. As the Brazilian Foreign Ministry stated, Vietnam's accession to BRICS signifies "further expansion of representation, with greater appeal and influence."
From the perspective of industrial upgrading, the agreement may unexpectedly drive Vietnam's manufacturing industry up the value chain. Faced with a 40% tariff on re-export trade, the simple assembly model is no longer profitable, forcing companies to either withdraw or establish a more complete industrial chain in Vietnam. The Vietnamese government is clearly aware of this, recently approving the establishment of a free trade zone covering approximately 1,881 hectares in the central city of Da Nang, encompassing multiple functional areas such as production, logistics, trade, services, and digital industries, aiming to build a "hub connecting the global economy."
The competition for digital sovereignty will also become a subsequent focus. Reports indicate that the Vietnamese government has requested that the zero-tariff agreement include clauses on TikTok data sovereignty, targeting the control of Southeast Asia by US tech giants. This indicates that developing countries are no longer satisfied with playing the role of digital colonies but are actively seeking technological autonomy. This trend resonates with the "de-dollarization" process jointly promoted by global South countries (such as Saudi Arabia settling 20% of its oil exports to China in yuan), collectively challenging the Western-dominated order.
The US-Vietnam trade agreement is like a multifaceted prism, reflecting the complex landscape of the simultaneous retreat of globalization and the rise of regionalization. For multinational corporations, this agreement marks the end of the "transshipment trade era" reliant on institutional arbitrage, forcing them to rethink their global layout strategies. For the two major economies of the US and China, the agreement is both an extension of the trade war and a new battleground for the technology war and standards war. For emerging countries like Vietnam, this is both a crisis and a historical opportunity to reconstruct development models and seek strategic autonomy.
While Trump was still using "conspiracy theories" to divert domestic contradictions, Chinese and Vietnamese cargo ships were already laden with solar panels, smartphones, and tropical fruits, carving out new trade routes in the Gulf of Tonkin. The significance of this route has long surpassed the 45 agreements themselves; it symbolizes that global South countries are exploring a development path different from the Western-dominated one. In this process, true wisdom may be like the awakening bamboo of Vietnam — flexible yet unyielding, finding a new direction for growth in the storm of change.
The future has arrived, and only change remains constant. In the wave of restructuring global supply chains, only those countries and enterprises that can quickly adapt to new rules, keenly grasp new trends, and bravely pioneer new models will become beneficiaries of this great transformation rather than victims. The US-Vietnam agreement is just the beginning; deeper changes in the global economic and trade system are accelerating.