The "expected return" of the lottery is a big deception
First, let's talk about the essence of the lottery. Buying a lottery ticket is essentially a probability game, but the rules of this game are not very friendly to you. Take the most common Double Chromosphere for example; you have to pick 6 red balls from 33, and then pick 1 blue ball from 16. What is the probability of winning the jackpot? The answer is 1/17,721,088. In other words, your chances are 25 times lower than being struck by lightning (about 1/700,000)! Not to mention some international lotteries, like the American Powerball, where the odds of winning are as low as 1/292,200,000, which can be described as "fantastical." How small is this probability? Let's put it this way: the chance of randomly finding a hundred-dollar bill on the street is higher than winning the jackpot.
But the charm of the lottery lies in its ability to make you ignore these cold numbers and immerse yourself in the beautiful dream of "what if I win." There is a concept in economics called "expected return," which simply means that if you invest one dollar, you can expect to get back a certain amount. The expected return of the lottery is pitifully low. Taking the Double Chromosphere as an example, a ticket costs 2 yuan, and the jackpot amount is usually several million, but when considering all prizes (including "thank you for your patronage"), the average return per ticket is only about 0.5 to 0.8 yuan. In other words, for every 2 yuan you spend on lottery tickets, you lose more than 1 yuan on average. This business would bankrupt anyone!
So why do so many people flock to it? Because lottery companies are very skilled in marketing. They won't tell you "the odds of winning are lower than being hit by a meteorite," but rather say "someone won 5 million last night!" or "you can change your life for as little as 2 yuan!" This kind of rhetoric makes you feel that dreams are within reach, even if you know the odds are slim, a little voice in your head still pops up: "What if?"
The "dream of reversal" for the poor: the cost of hope
The attraction of the lottery is especially strong for the poor. Why? Because for many people, the lottery is the cheapest way they can imagine to "reverse" their situation. With low wages, high rents, and tight living conditions, the lottery feels like a lifeline, giving you the illusion that "as long as you have good luck, you can turn your life around." Psychologists call this "cognitive bias": when people are in despair, they are more likely to overestimate the likelihood of low-probability events. For example, you may have heard of the classic case: a janitor in a small American town saved money for half his life to buy lottery tickets, and in the end, he really won a multi-million dollar prize, bought a mansion, and lived the life he had always dreamed of. Such stories spread like a virus, igniting hope in countless people.
But what about reality? In 2018, China's lottery sales reached 511.4 billion yuan, with an average of 370 yuan spent per person on lottery tickets. The expenditure of low-income groups on this is even higher. According to a survey, low-income families spend an average of 3%-5% of their disposable income on lottery tickets, while high-income families spend less than 1%. This means that not only do the poor buy lottery tickets more frequently, but every penny they spend is more "valuable," with each ticket purchased coming from their essential living expenses.
What’s even harsher is that the stories of winning are just the tip of the iceberg. A 2019 study in the U.S. found that 70% of lottery winners will spend all their winnings within five years, even going bankrupt. Why? Because many people lack financial management experience, spend money recklessly, or have relatives and friends "borrow" from them, ultimately ending up worse off than before they won. So, the lottery not only fails to turn your life around but may also cause you to fall harder.
Lottery companies: legal "wealth harvesters"
Have you ever thought about where the money from the lottery goes in the end? On the surface, the lottery is a "public welfare project," such as China's welfare lottery and sports lottery, which claim that funds will be used for social welfare, education, and sports projects. But the truth is, the distribution of lottery income is a bit like a black box. In China, for example, lottery income is roughly divided into three parts: 50% for prizes, 35% for public welfare, and 15% for distribution costs. Sounds good, right? But the transparency of how that 35% "public welfare fund" is used is not very high. In 2015, the National Audit Office found that some lottery funds were misappropriated, even ending up in the pockets of officials. This doesn't even account for the high operating costs and advertising expenses of lottery companies; the wool is pulled from the sheep, and in the end, you are still the one paying.
Lottery companies are well-versed in psychology. They know that the poor need hope more, so advertisements always amplify the stories of "winning changes lives." Remember those banners outside lottery ticket outlets? "Congratulations to this site for winning a 5 million jackpot!" This tactic is called "social proof," making you feel that winning is just around the corner, tempting you to spend money. Even more cunningly, lottery companies design "consolation prizes," such as small prizes of 5 yuan, making you feel "I didn't win the jackpot this time, but at least I got some back," thus making you more willing to continue buying. But in reality, these small prizes only trap you deeper.
Why can't the poor quit the lottery?
At this point, you might think, if the lottery is so bad, why do people still rush to it? The answer lies in behavioral economics. There is a phenomenon called the "sunk cost fallacy": when you have already spent a lot of money on lottery tickets, even if you haven't won, you will feel "I've been buying for so long, I can't give up halfway." It's like when you eat half a plate of bad food at a restaurant, feeling it's a waste to throw it away, you force yourself to finish it, and end up feeling worse.
There is also a psychological phenomenon called the "near-miss effect." Every time the numbers you buy are just a little off from the winning numbers, for example, matching 5 out of 6, you feel "so close!" This feeling makes you more addicted because your brain mistakenly believes "next time I will win." Lottery companies are also well aware of this; when they design number distributions, they ensure that many people "almost win," stimulating you to continue buying.
Not to mention the influence of the social environment. In some small towns or low-income communities, lottery ticket outlets often serve as social centers. Friends gather to discuss numbers and share "winning secrets," making buying lottery tickets a way of life. As someone said, "If I don't buy a lottery ticket, I feel like I have no dreams." This collective frenzy makes it even harder to quit the lottery.
What are the alternatives to the lottery?
Of course, you might ask: if you don't buy lottery tickets, what can the poor rely on to turn their lives around? To be honest, the appeal of the lottery lies in its simplicity—two yuan, a little finger movement, and you can fantasize about mansions and sports cars. But the reality is that the road to changing your fate is often not that "simple." For example, learning a skill, saving money to invest, or finding a side job may not sound as exciting as the lottery, but the odds of a return are much higher than 1/17,721,088.
There is a true story: a single mother in the U.S. saved the money she would have spent on lottery tickets to enroll in an accounting course at night school, and two years later, she found a stable job and completely escaped poverty. This story may not sound as "legendary" as winning the lottery, but it reminds us: instead of pinning our hopes on the lottery, investing in ourselves may be more reliable.
The truth about the lottery
The temptation of the lottery, at its core, is the selling of hope. It makes you feel that success is just a piece of paper away. But in reality, that piece of paper is more like a one-way ticket, leading not to wealth, but to deeper financial troubles. Every time you spend money on lottery tickets, you are paying for someone else's dreams—the dreams of the lottery companies.
So, the next time you pass by a lottery ticket outlet and a thought of "what if I win" pops into your head, why not stop and think: instead of throwing your money into this abyss of probability, maybe buying a cup of coffee, watching a movie, or saving some money to learn something new will bring you closer to your dreams. After all, true reversal has never relied on luck, but on your own choices.