Japan, the land of sushi and Onigiri rice balls, is currently facing a severe rice shortage. Imagine a country where rice is the heart of every meal, now its people have to queue and jostle to buy each bag of rice. In Japanese supermarkets, rice has become a precious commodity, with prices skyrocketing, at times nearly doubling compared to before.

Why is Japan in this situation?

A miraculous developed country with advanced agricultural techniques, how can it be lacking in rice, and why, with so much money, is there a rice shortage? More importantly, what role does Vietnam, the homeland of vast rice fields, play in this story? Could this be an opportunity for Vietnamese rice to fill the shelves of Japanese supermarkets? Before diving into the rice crisis, we need to understand why rice is important to Japan.

In Japan, rice is not just food; it is a culture and a source of pride. Rice appears everywhere, from sushi and rice balls to sake and cakes, even in traditional ceremonies. The Japanese often say that a meal without rice is not a meal. This perspective is quite similar to that in Vietnam. But in Japan, where everything is done meticulously, they elevate rice to a new level. They cultivate premium rice varieties like Kosihikari, which are round, sticky, and fragrant, treated with the care of an art piece. Japanese farmers water, check the soil, and harvest with such precision that you would think they are crafting handmade goods rather than growing rice.

Japan consumes about 7 million tons of rice each year, and for a developed industrial nation like Japan, it seems they would import rice, but they do not. The remarkable thing is that almost all rice is domestically produced, meaning it is grown and produced in Japan. Why? Because the Japanese believe that Japanese rice is the best, the essence of heaven and earth, unmatched by any other country. The Japanese government also protects farmers by imposing very high import taxes on foreign rice, up to 778%. 778% means that a bag of rice from Vietnam, if it wants to enter Japan, will cost about eight times the original price. It is hard to believe. Yet now, Japan is facing the worst crisis in decades. Supermarket shelves are empty, people are panicking, and rice prices are soaring.

Why is Japan facing a rice shortage, and why is there a rice crisis?

The first reason, and the biggest culprit, is the weather. "Look at the sky, look at the earth, look at the clouds, look at the rain, look at the wind, look at day and night." This saying still holds true for farmers after many centuries, even though science and technology have advanced. Japan is heavily affected by climate change. In the summer of 2023, record heat, with temperatures reaching around 40°C, accompanied by storms and floods. Rice is a delicate crop that needs just the right amount of water and stable temperatures. Too much sun causes it to wilt, too much rain leads to flooding and rot.

The result of the 2023 harvest was a disaster, a failed harvest for Japan. The rice yield for 2023 was only 6.6 million tons, which is below the average of 7 million tons. Being lower means not enough rice. And with such harsh weather, the quality of rice also significantly decreased, causing the Japanese to start worrying. In 2024, the situation worsened. Prolonged heat, lack of irrigation, and pests caused Japan's harvest to fail again, and once again, rice was in short supply. Simply put, Mother Nature is angry with Japan, and the rice supply is shrinking like a deflating balloon; Japan's rice reserves are dwindling.

The second reason for Japan's rice shortage is due to foreigners, due to tourism. It may sound strange, but tourists are causing Japan to lack rice because they are eating Japanese rice. Have you ever been to Japan? If you go, you will definitely have to try sushi, rice balls, or bento boxes at the train station. Each of these dishes contains rice and requires good quality rice. Because when people travel to Japan, they want to eat well, and Japan must provide good products. In 2024, Japan welcomed about 35 million tourists.

People really like to visit Japan during this period. Tourism is booming due to the weak yen, cheap flight tickets, and Japan fully reopening after the pandemic. Each tourist eats at least one or two meals with rice each day, from fancy sushi restaurants to casual ramen shops. And it is estimated that tourism also increases rice demand by hundreds of thousands of tons each year for Japan.

The third reason for Japan's rice shortage is the panic mentality of the people. This kind of mentality exists in every country. In 2024, Japan issued a warning about the risk of a mega earthquake in the Nankai Trough that could reach 9° on the Richter scale and cause terrible damage. If you were Japanese, what would you do? This news is like pouring oil on fire; people immediately rush to buy supplies like noodles, water, and especially rice, the most essential food. The mentality of needing rice causes a sudden spike in demand, pushing rice prices up and making supermarket shelves look empty within hours. These reasons are all objective reasons. Whether it is the weather, tourists, or the people's mentality due to nature.

So does the Japanese government have no responsibility?

Indeed, they have their own responsibilities, which is a flawed agricultural policy. Japan is a very meticulous country, very good at management, but when it comes to managing rice, it seems they have miscalculated. For decades, the Japanese have intentionally reduced rice production to keep prices high and avoid surplus. The government even pays farmers to switch from rice cultivation to soybean and other crops, ensuring that the rice supply is just enough. As a result, the area of rice cultivation has significantly decreased.

In 2024, the area of rice cultivation was only 1.5 million hectares, which is half of what it was in 1970. Moreover, Japan protects domestic rice by imposing import taxes on rice up to 778%, which is excessively high. Vietnamese rice, Thai rice, or even American rice wanting to enter Japan will be more expensive than domestic rice, so hardly anyone can afford it. When the crisis occurred, the Japanese had no backup rice supply from abroad, and the national reserve of about 1 million tons quickly ran out. Not to mention, Japan is always known as a country that is aging too quickly. The elderly cannot farm, and the young do not want to farm either. The number of farmers is rapidly decreasing, and modern machinery cannot compensate. In other words, the rice protection policy has caused Japan to fall into a position of shooting itself in the foot.

Finally, we must mention Japan's rice supply chain. In Japan, rice does not go directly from farmers to supermarkets. It must go through distributors, passing through several other levels before reaching consumers. Each of these intermediaries can slow down the flow of rice, especially in a crisis. And when demand spikes, this system does not respond in time. Some supermarkets in Tokyo run out of rice, while warehouses in rural areas are still full. Additionally, the farmers' reluctance to sell because they know rice prices will continue to rise complicates everything. The result is that rice is available but does not reach those who need it.

So how is the rice crisis affecting Japan?

First, rice prices are rising. A 5 kg bag of premium Kosihikari rice now costs about 5000 yen, which is about 900,000 VND. Regular rice also costs about 750. Compared to 2024, rice prices have nearly doubled. People, especially low-income families, have had to tighten their belts and literally go hungry. Many have switched to eating bread, instant noodles, and potatoes. The rice crisis is not just an economic issue but also a political one. The approval rating for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has plummeted. The public is angry at the government's slow response to the crisis. The Minister of Agriculture, Taku Eeto, even had to resign. If the crisis is not resolved, this cabinet might even lose their seats.

So what can Vietnam do to enter the Japanese market?

First, understand that in the Japanese market, the Japanese do not just eat rice; they also revere it. Rice must be white, sticky, fragrant, and have uniformly round grains, meeting strict quality standards. They prefer short, sticky Japanese rice, unlike varieties that are a bit longer and fragrant like Vietnam's ST25. Moreover, Japan restricts rice imports with very high taxes and strict regulations, as mentioned. Each year, they only import about 700,000 tons of rice as committed to the WTO, mainly from the US, Australia, and Thailand.

Vietnam, although exporting about 8 million tons of rice in 2024, only occupies a very small portion in Japan, mainly sticky rice or cheap rice. But this crisis will be a rare opportunity as domestic Japanese rice becomes scarce, and the Japanese begin to be more open to foreign rice. With abundant production, competitive prices, and improving quality, Vietnam stands before a golden door. Vietnam produces over 43 million tons of rice each year and exports nearly 8 million tons, enough to meet Japan's demand if Japan is willing to open its doors.

Japanese rice will be expensive, while Vietnamese rice will be cheaper and ready to compete with American rice or any country exporting to Japan. Furthermore, with thousands of years of rice cultivation experience, Vietnam has diverse techniques and rice varieties, allowing us to easily adjust to grow Japanese rice according to Japanese standards specifically for Japanese customers. The rice crisis in Japan is not just a short-term opportunity; it could be a boost for Vietnam to elevate its rice industry from a low-cost rice exporter to a high-quality, high-value rice exporter. If successful, Vietnamese rice could not only enter Japan but also conquer even the most demanding markets. Imagine one day you go to eat in Tokyo, and the server tells you that this rice is from Vietnam, and it is very delicious.