The technology industry is very dynamic, and the only constant is the change. Unless adaptation, companies that seem to be invincible may be troubled because of their nobles. We can see this in the differences between the fate between Microsoft and Intel, and both see that the PC is replaced by mobile devices. Microsoft is adapted by rotating to the cloud, while the fate of Intel declines because ARM, TSMC and NVIDIA are rising.
Due to the rise of the answer engine, such as confusion , the rise of the Copilot engines such as ChatGPT and Microsoft , Google is facing similar interruptions of its core search business. Media narrative opposes Google, especially its CEO Sundar Pichai. Its article has a title, such as Alphabet, which requires its own Mark Zuckerberg and Alphabet Faces to publish in AI almost every day .
However, compared with the facts, this negative emotion seems to be a bit extreme. Since its peak in May 2023, ChatGPT's growth on the Internet has been unified, while Alphabet's record profit last quarter was $ 20.7 billion , an increase of 52 % over the previous year. Which one is it? Google is dying, or is this just the media's love for the weak of the weak, causing them to be in fact? The fact is as always somewhere in the middle.
Search for advertising, the greatest business model of the Internet
"If you want to live, please come with me" -ilitator 2: Judgment Day
Google accidentally discovered one of the most symbiosis and favorable business model known as humans. People came to google to find the products and services they wanted to buy, which showed them advertisements. People clicked on these advertisements, and Google received compensation. It is very simple and favorable.
The content created by the website makes Google useful, providing costs for Google for free, and getting valuable traffic from people who click the link in the search results. This creates a feedback loop. The more people using the Internet, the more content with the Google index, and the more Google send it to the website.
The more people using Google there, the more difficult the other search engine competition is, because Google has more data than anyone else to train its engine correlation. Then, Google has paid more than 26 billion US dollars per year to ensure that it captures the most valuable search entrance point , thereby preventing any new engines such as Alta Vista and excited engines such as ALTA VISTA, so as to make them Put the thumb into practice. Essence
For decades, because Microsoft has indeed evidenced in court , because of these dynamics, the new search engine cannot compete with Google. However, technical destruction will cause the structure advantage to have nothing to do. The advantages of the digital camera in the film camera are the same. The advantages of touch -based smartphones make the advantages of Nokia and Blackberry. The LLM -based answer engine also threatens the same thing on Google search.
The rise of the answer engine and the death of 10 blue links, maybe
"If bleeding, we can kill it" -The predator
Fifteen years ago, Microsoft launched Bing as a decision engine. This is a new search engine. Its tone is different from Google's method. It shows people 10 blue links (plus advertising) methods to people. different. When you consider the tone of answering engines such as Plyplexity and Microsoft Copilot, the following excerpts are foreseeable.
"Bing is dedicated to establishing the benefits of today's search engine, but by adopting new user experience and intuitive tools to help customers make better decisions, it was originally focused on four key vertical areas: making purchase decisions to surpass it beyond This experience, planning travel, studying health or finding local enterprises.
The result of this new method is a new, more powerful starting of the important start of search services. Microsoft calls on the decision engine to make people get insight and knowledge from the Internet, so as to turn to important decisions faster. "
Even at that time, it was obvious that in many cases, what people wanted from the search engine was the answer to their questions, and it was also a tool that could help them make decisions, rather than the collection of links to the website. This is especially true today. When these links are on Google, these links are used for SEO content junk mail websites .
However, the problem of Bing is that marketing sales have disconnected the connection with the technology. Bing is just another web search engine that returns 10 blue links, no matter how much the advertising series is. Therefore, due to the structural reasons mentioned earlier, it failed to get a traction.
Today, the answer engine supported by LLMS can be done according to the approach claimed by Bing's marketers, but it cannot actually be 15 years ago. I personally have the entire query category that I only performed on ChatGPT instead of Google, because I know I will get a direct answer without browse a bunch of well -designed websites to find the answer.
In addition, the LLM -based answer engine breaks the symbiotic model of network search, while the 10 blue link model drives the traffic from the website, which inspires them to make the content of the content. ) Search engine capture. Ask the Inner Union to ask, do not send the traffic to the website. Therefore, the websites that have traveled towards the paid wall solve various attacks on online advertising. For example, Google Chrome has degraded the third -party cookie . They further inspired to hide its content in the search engine, so as to reduce the quality of Google's product quality It's worse.
Therefore, Google now has the risk of entering a negative feedback cycle. In the case of competing with tools such as Perpolxity and ChatGPT, it actually destroys its core products and damages the entire Web ecosystem.
Finally, Google's business model is based on displaying people's advertisements as the first result of organic content. In some cases, fill the entire page to fill the advertisement. You must roll before you can see the organic results. You only provide users with the user experience without the opportunity to display advertisements.
Before dawn, it was always the darkest
"I will come back!" -Forian, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Assault Team, Runner, twins, total recall, finally action hero
However, destruction is not unavoidable. Many companies have found a way to avoid unstoppable power. When the Google Android team saw the iPhone and changed from the Blackberry style product to a more competitive product with the iPhone . Today, there are 5 times as many Android users as iPhone users . On the other hand, BlackBerry is now a note in history .
Google has two key issues. The first is whether the LLM -based answer engine can truly consume its favorable search advertising business. Most of my inquiries I currently conducted in ChatGPT are that Google does not show advertising questions because they are usually a form of research, not related to buying. Google's business is harmed only when people stop using it to search for favorable search tasks , such as buying new smartphones and getting car insurance or switching broadband network providers. Only time will explain, but this seems to be the main risk at present.
The second question is whether Google will take risks, not the answer to the first question. At present, Google has its search for generating experience , although LLM -based answers are included in the blue link+advertisement of the subordinate. Google may respond to the current excitement of generating AI, and actually damage their business, similar to Microsoft's reaction method of using Windows 8 to iPad , and creates its biggest failure in 2010. However, it is waiting for them to hold this position first, because Google's researchers have developed the basic technical breakthroughs that currently generate AI .
From my perspective, the two most important tasks of Google today are
- Finding LLM -based search business models, this model is equivalent to the current search advertising business. If they can easily make a profit answer like 10 blue links, Google can simply destroy its current product.
- You can access various valuable information repository so that Google is the best source of some questions. This will use money to pay Apple with money, Firefox and others as a default search result to consolidate their positions. It is a good start to pay $ 60 million to visit the training LLM , but they will need more.