It is worth noting that the current **price drop is occurring on the basis of high prices at the beginning of the year**. In January 2025, due to the alkaline tender yellow residue incidents affecting exports to China from Thailand and Vietnam, domestic durian inventories continued to decline, reaching a five-year low, leading to a significant price increase. At that time, the wholesale price of Thai Musang King durian rose to 18 yuan per jin, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the price of Musang King durian broke through 120 yuan per jin, with some high-end supermarkets' retail prices even approaching 200 yuan. Compared to this peak, the current price drop is, to some extent, a manifestation of market normalization. The phenomenon of durian prices being "cut in half" vividly illustrates the volatility characteristics of the agricultural product market and reflects the complex interactions of the fresh supply chain in a globalized context. Understanding these deeper reasons helps us more accurately grasp the market pulse and predict future trends.
The dramatic fluctuations in durian prices are triggering a chain reaction throughout the entire industry chain, from Southeast Asian plantations to Chinese wholesale markets, from importers to end retailers, every link is profoundly feeling the impact of this "price earthquake." This shock is not evenly distributed—some face survival crises while others seize rare business opportunities; traditional business models are challenged, while emerging formats gain development opportunities. A comprehensive analysis of the impact of price declines on various links in the industry chain not only helps to understand the current market pattern but also provides a reference framework for strategic adjustments for relevant practitioners.
The plight of small and medium-sized Thai growers has become the most vulnerable link in the industry chain. The Thai Durian Exporters Association reports that the current offshore price has fallen below the breakeven point of 12 Thai baht per kilogram, putting severe survival pressure on many small and medium-sized growers. Compared to large-scale plantations, these small farmers have weak risk resistance and high production costs, making them the first to be impacted in the wave of price declines. It is worth noting that this price pressure is not evenly distributed—new plantations in eastern Thailand can still maintain a certain profit margin due to scale effects and increased yields, while the traditional smallholder economy-dominated southern production areas are expected to see a 20% reduction in output due to drought, suffering a double blow of "declining quantity and price." This differentiation may lead to a reshuffling of the Thai durian industry, accelerating the exit of small farmers or their transition to cooperative models.
The inventory strategies of domestic distributors are undergoing fundamental changes. Faced with rapid price declines, the traditional "stock up and wait for prices to rise" business model is becoming increasingly risky, forcing distributors to adopt more flexible inventory management methods. Some wholesalers in Beijing's Xinfadi have begun to use a "futures pricing" model to lock in risks, while more small and medium-sized distributors have shortened their inventory turnover cycle from 14 days to 7 days to reduce potential losses from price fluctuations. This rapid turnover, while reducing risk, also compresses profit margins—the era of relying on information asymmetry and seasonal price differences to obtain high profits is coming to an end. Some visionary distributors are beginning to shift towards differentiated competition, such as focusing on high-end varieties (like Musang King) or developing B-end markets like corporate clients to avoid price wars in the mass market.
Downstream processing enterprises are welcoming development opportunities. In the first quarter of 2025, the output of durian products increased by 62% year-on-year, with the market share of freeze-dried durian rising to 27%. The price drop has reduced raw material costs, making deep-processed products more price competitive, which helps to expand the consumer base. The proportion of deep-processed products like liquid nitrogen quick-frozen fruit pulp has increased, lowering the threshold for consumers to try new products. Some innovative companies have begun to develop diversified products such as durian desserts and durian mooncakes, extending the industrial chain and increasing added value. This development of downstream processing not only digests some of the excess supply in the fresh fruit market but also provides a buffer zone during price fluctuations for the industry.
Retail terminal marketing strategies are also adjusting accordingly. In the face of a market environment where "prices change daily," retailers generally adopt high-frequency pricing strategies, with some supermarkets even adjusting prices multiple times within a single day. New retail channels like Hema Fresh have reduced the loss rate from 25% in traditional channels to 8% by using a "direct sourcing + 48-hour delivery" model, gaining a significant cost advantage. At the same time, the retail side has also increased promotional efforts, attracting foot traffic with eye-catching prices like "19.9 yuan per jin," using durian as a traffic-driving product to boost sales of other fruits. It is worth noting that the price differences between different retail formats have widened—high-end supermarkets still maintain a high premium, while community vegetable markets and e-commerce platforms have become the main battleground for price wars.
Consumer behavior shows clear differentiation. The price elasticity effect is fully reflected in durian consumption: the average transaction price in first-tier cities remains stable in the range of 200-300 yuan, indicating that the core consumer group is relatively insensitive to price; while in second- and third-tier cities, "hundred-yuan durians" have become the mainstream consumption tier, indicating that price reductions have effectively activated the potential market. Under the pre-sale model of cross-border e-commerce, the turnover efficiency of durians has increased by 40%, reflecting young consumers' acceptance of new shopping methods. At the same time, social media has seen the emergence of "durian freedom" as a form of conspicuous consumption, with some individuals purchasing 50 boxes at once; although this irrational behavior accounts for a small proportion, it amplifies market demand signals and may exacerbate short-term price fluctuations.
Logistics and cold chain service providers have become invisible beneficiaries. With a significant increase in durian imports and domestic circulation, the demand for professional cold chain logistics has surged. Specialized logistics channels such as the cold chain train on the China-Laos Railway and the "durian express" at Guangzhou Nansha Port have secured stable cargo volumes, leading to a growth period for related service providers. At the same time, the premium capability of high-quality cold chain services (such as liquid nitrogen preservation) has increased, driving the industry towards specialization and refinement. This improvement in logistics infrastructure not only serves the current market but also lays a more efficient foundation for future agricultural product circulation.
The "halving" of durian prices is reshaping the value distribution pattern of the entire industry chain; this reshaping process brings both growing pains and opportunities for innovation and transformation. For practitioners, accurately assessing their position in the industry chain and the extent of impact, and timely adjusting business strategies will be key to responding to this change. Future price trend analysis: short-term fluctuations coexist with long-term declines: the dramatic fluctuations in the durian market have attracted widespread attention, and consumers, investors, and all parties in the industry chain are eager to understand: is this price drop a fleeting phenomenon or a long-term trend? Where will durian prices head in the future? Based on current market data and industry dynamics, we can analyze and predict from three time dimensions: short-term, medium-term, and long-term, providing decision-making references for different demand groups.
In the short term (1-3 months), price trends will show a "first suppression then rise" oscillation characteristic. Industry insiders generally believe that as a large number of durians from eastern Thailand come to market in June, and the storage period of durians shortens with rising temperatures, wholesalers may further lower prices to clear inventory. Yuan Ming, the market manager of the Qingdao Dongfang Dingxin International Agricultural and Sideline Products Trading Center, predicts that with Vietnamese durians hitting the market next month, the total amount of durians entering Qingdao will reach 5 million jin, and wholesale prices are expected to drop below 20 yuan per jin. This trend of increasing supply may continue until mid to late June, with prices still having a 10%-20% downward space. However, the upcoming holiday effect of the Dragon Boat Festival may bring a short-term rebound in demand, leading to a slight price increase before the holiday. After that, as the harvest in the eastern production areas of Thailand comes to an end and affordable varieties like Vietnamese dry durians continue to arrive at the port, the prices of high-quality fruits may rise to around 35 yuan per jin, but the overall increase will be restrained. This short-term fluctuation reflects the characteristics of seasonal supply and demand changes and provides savvy consumers with opportunities for purchasing timing.
In the medium term (6-12 months), price trends will be influenced by the arrival of domestic durians and climate changes in Southeast Asia. This year, the expected output of "tree-ripened" durians in Sanya is 600 tons, which, although a small proportion of the import volume, may exert some price pressure on imported durians due to its symbolic significance and quality advantages (softer and sweeter). More critically, the southern region of Thailand is expected to see a 20% reduction in output due to drought, which may affect supply in the second half of the year, leading to price increases. However, the continuous growth in Vietnamese production (annual output reaching 850,000 tons) will alleviate this supply pressure. Industry insiders expect that in the second half of 2025, durian prices will show a differentiation pattern of "high quality, high price; low quality, low price," with the overall average price likely maintaining in the range of 20-30 yuan per jin, slightly rebounding from the current level but far below the early year's peak. This medium-term trend reflects the substitution relationships and competitive dynamics between different production areas and varieties.