This geographical proximity has made Cuba a concern in the eyes of Americans since the Cold War era. It is geography that has made the Cuba-US story special. If Cuba were located in South America like Chile or Argentina, perhaps the United States would not be as concerned. But because Cuba is right next door, in waters that are essentially America's backyard, every political upheaval in Cuba is a significant issue for the United States. This is the starting point for over 60 years of tension.
First of all, to understand why Cuba cannot lift the embargo, one must know why it was imposed. After the successful Cuban revolution in 1959, Cuba transformed from a close ally of the US, essentially America's backyard, into an adversarial nation. It is only a few hours by boat from the US, but the ideologies are worlds apart. In 1962, when the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba, the world entered the Cuban missile crisis. The world seemed to be on the brink of nuclear war, which could have led to World War III. From this point, the US imposed even stricter sanctions on Cuba.
How can reconciliation occur when the two countries are adversarial?
The first difference is political. For Cuba to reconcile with the US, it must face a significant demand for changes in its system and politics. However, this is something that cannot be changed. Therefore, the US-Cuba relationship remains stuck in a vicious cycle. The US demands changes before lifting the embargo, while Cuba insists on lifting the embargo first before considering reforms. In general, Cuba needs to learn from the lessons of Vietnam. But politics is not everything. The Cuban people are still most affected by the embargo in their stomachs and wallets.
Economically, geography plays an important role once again. Cuba is the largest island in the Caribbean, with an area of about 110,000 km², stretching over 1200 km, resembling a giant crocodile swimming in the sea. Being close to the US, Cuba could have become a bustling trade or tourist center like Puerto Rico or the Bahamas, with beautiful beaches, agricultural products, and coastal services. However, due to the comprehensive US embargo, Cuba has to live in a state of trade drought, relying only on a few distant partners like Venezuela, Russia, or China. And of course, it cannot do without help from Vietnam.
Take a simple example. If not for the embargo, Cuba could import wheat, grains, beef, and milk directly from Texas, just a few hundred kilometers away by sea, at extremely low costs. But in reality, they have to go around purchasing through Mexico or Canada, causing prices to rise and supply to be delayed. A country like Cuba, next to the US, finds the US like a large supermarket, but Cuba is not allowed to shop. This prevents the Cuban economy from developing normally. People have to stand in long lines waiting for food, while the government continuously calls for austerity measures. This is the embargo, and this is the result of the two countries not engaging with each other.
In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost a massive source of aid and fell into a crisis known as the special period. This is the clearest evidence that a country, if cut off from the global economic network, finds it very difficult to survive, and a country right next to a superpower must know how to handle the situation. Therefore, to escape dependency, Cuba must think about reconciling with the US. An opportunity arose during the presidency of Barack Obama when relations warmed somewhat. For the first time in over half a century, the US and Cuba opened direct flights.
Americans were allowed to travel to Cuba, and sending remittances to Cuba became easier. In just a few years, over half a million American tourists visited Cuba. At that time, there was a great opportunity. The classic cars from the 1950s, once symbols of poverty, became tourist attractions in Cuba, transporting American visitors. Hotels in Havana began to receive guests, and Americans came. The Cuban economy received a breath of fresh air. But this joy was short-lived when Donald Trump took office, seeking the votes of the Cuban community against the Cuban government in Florida. He tightened the embargo again, and Cuba was once more placed on the sanctions list.
There are many reasons why Cuba cannot reconcile with the US.
The Cuban exile community has a significant influence on US decisions regarding the lifting of the embargo on Cuba. They are like a second Cuba but located within the US, where they preserve the memories of their homeland while shaping the foreign policy of their new homeland. Currently, there are about 2 million people of Cuban descent living in the US, accounting for nearly 7% of the total Latin American population, with nearly half concentrated in Florida, a state known as a Swing State, meaning a battleground state where the presidential election results can sway the fate of the entire country. Therefore, the Cuban community in Florida is not just a migrant community but also a significant political force, and presidential candidates pay close attention to them.
Where did this community come from?
After the Cuban revolution, many people left the country with opposing ideologies. They brought gold, jewelry, and documents on the last flights or boarded boats heading straight to Miami. In just a few years, tens of thousands of Cubans arrived in the US, forming an unprecedented large migrant community. Most of them were middle and upper class while in Cuba, closely connected to the US. It must be said that the animosity of this generation is very deep. Therefore, many harbor the desire to return to Havana, reclaim their land, reopen factories, and restore what was lost.
They do not just sit and lament but also participate in and establish expatriate associations to raise funds and form groups opposing the Cuban government. For decades, they have been at the forefront of maintaining the embargo policy against Cuba. And Florida is a very fluctuating state. What does that mean? It means that sometimes it leans towards the Republican Party, and sometimes it leans towards the Democratic Party. In closely contested elections, just a few tens of thousands of votes can determine who will be the President of the United States. The Cuban community in Florida is large.
In other words, if a presidential candidate can win the trust of this community, they can secure a part of the victory in Florida. Therefore, both parties in the US, the Democrats and Republicans, do not overlook the voice of the Cuban community, especially the Republican Party, which often has a strong opposing stance and always exploits the historical animosity of the first generation of migrants to tighten the embargo policy against Cuba. For decades, the Cuban community in Miami alone has been able to stifle any efforts to normalize relations between the two countries. Moreover, the Cuban exiles also have powerful representatives in the US government.
Names like Marco Rubio, the son of a Cuban family, are the clearest evidence. He is known for his hardline stance, always opposing any efforts to get closer to Havana, and his political future may rise even higher. Additionally, there are other Cuban-American congressmen like Mario Diaz-Balart or Jimenez, who form a Cuban bloc in the US Congress capable of exerting pressure on the administration's policy. This is why the US has maintained the embargo since the 1960s until now, despite many calls for change. However, the story is not all gray; the next generations of Cubans in the US have different thoughts. They were born in the US, attended American schools, speak fluent English, work in multinational companies, and gradually lose the deep-seated animosity towards their homeland that their ancestors had.
Another unresolved issue is the financial one.
Specifically, the amount of money demanded for compensation, specifically for compensation due to economic sanctions. Cuba has requested the US to compensate over 300 billion US dollars, of which the economic damages alone amount to over 121 billion US dollars. This is the amount Cuba claims it has lost due to its inability to develop a normal economy because of the US embargo. If cut off from the international market, unable to export or import, and unable to modernize its economy, what should Cuba do? And this is their loss, 121 billion.
Next is the humanitarian damage that Cuba estimates to be around 181 billion dollars. This part is even larger because it relates to the lives of millions of Cuban people. The lack of medicine, medical equipment, and food has forced many Cubans to live in difficult conditions for decades. This damage cannot only be measured in money but also in losses of health and opportunities. Cuba believes that these losses, along with other difficulties, deserve compensation of 181 billion dollars. When adding these two figures together, 121 billion dollars in economic damage that Cuba estimates due to the US embargo plus 181 billion dollars in humanitarian damage, we have a total of over 300 billion dollars.
This is what Cuba presented in a report to the United Nations and during negotiations with the US in 2016. Of course, the US did not accept this figure and even demanded compensation in return, amounting to 8 billion dollars. 8 billion dollars is very large for Cuba but not significant for the US. This amount is explained by the US as compensation for Cuba nationalizing American companies, sugar plantations, oil mills, and hotels, with these companies estimated to have suffered damages of about 1.9 billion dollars at that time. Including interest, the figure rises to about 8 billion dollars. The US believes that Cuba should repay this amount. Perhaps this 8 billion dollars is also a way for the US to seek goodwill from Cuba and probe Cuba's intentions. But the two sides have never been able to find common ground. In summary, once animosity exists, it is very difficult to find common ground.